By MIKE SCULLIN
Philahoops Bracket Expert
Expected RPI data courtesy of RPIForecast.com. Game projection data courtesy of Sagarain Predictor Ratings. Percentages refer to chances of at large bids, not factoring in the possibility of automatic bids.
Target Wins/RPI for NCAA bid: 21 W, 35 RPI
Chances of NCAA bid: 74.83% (7 day change: -0.93%)
Target Wins/RPI for NIT bid: 18 W, 62 RPI
Chances of NIT bid: 24.36% (7 day change: +1.19%)
Postseason chances: 99.19% (7 day change: +0.26%)
Temple lost some ground with a home loss to Dayton (Expected RPI 46), then immediately gained said ground back with a road win at St. Louis (Expected RPI 42). The Owls are just about a lock for postseason play of some sort this year.
I eased up on their NIT target down to 18 wins, as a 62 RPI with their resume would clearly be enough to send them to the little dance if it comes down to that. Temple has a tough road test at Richmond (Expected RPI 105) this week as 1 point favorites with a 55% chance of victory, then hosts LaSalle (Expected RPI 77) as 5 point favorites with a 69% chance of victory. 1-1 should be enough to keep their postseason chances around where they currently are.
Target Wins/RPI for NCAA bid: 21 W, 38 RPI
Chances of NCAA bid: 49.42% (7 day change: -25.55%)
Target Wins/RPI for NIT bid: 19 W, 56 RPI
Chances of NIT bid: 36.84% (7 day change: +15.89%)
Postseason chances: 86.26% (7 day change: -9.66%)
A very poor home loss to a pedestrian Charlotte squad (Expected RPI 97) — the Hawks were 8.5 point favorites in Vegas at tipoff — has sent the Hawks’ at large chances plummeting. St. Joe’s begins a rough stretch of 5 out of 6 road games this week with trips to UMass (Expected RPI 94, 51% chance of victory) and Xavier (Expected RPI 53, 38% chance of victory). St. Joe’s would improve their chances of dancing if they can manage to split these games.
Target Wins/RPI for NCAA bid: 23 W, 57 RPI
Chances of NCAA bid: 24.35% (7 day change: +12.13%)
Target Wins/RPI for NIT bid: 21 W, 79 RPI
Chances of NIT bid: 39.97% (7 day change: +3.78%)
Postseason chances: 64.32% (7 day change: +15.91%)
La Salle keeps the good times rolling with a solid home win against UMass (Expected RPI 94) and a road win against Penn (Expected RPI 159). Things get considerably harder for the explorers this week as they face two of the A10′s best on the road — Dayton (Expected RPI 46, 35% chance of victory) and Temple (Expected RPI 32, 31% chance of victory). La Salle’s chances of dancing will again increase if they manage to pick up a win in either of those games, but doing so will be mighty tough.
Target Wins/RPI for NCAA bid: 18 W, 49 RPI
Chances of NCAA bid: 1.10% (7 day change: -4.93%)
Target Wins/RPI for NIT bid: 16 W, 72 RPI
Chances of NIT bid: 13.09% (7 day change: -10.57%)
Postseason chances: 14.19% (7 day change: -15.50%)
A home win over lowly Depaul (Expected RPI 163) didn’t do much to help the Wildcats’ postseason chances, and they were unable to take advantage of their opportunity to take down Syracuse (Expected RPI 2) at the Wells Fargo Center. This week, Nova travels to Cincinnati (Expected RPI 84, 28% chance of victory) and hosts Seton Hall (Expected RPI 18, 44% chance of victory). If nothing else, hopefully the Cats can at least return to respectability and help Temple and St. Joe’s out. What looked at the time like quality wins for those squads over Villanova now look like they won’t carry much weight come March.
Target Wins/RPI for NCAA bid: -
Chances of NCAA bid: 0.00%
Target Wins/RPI for NIT bid: 23 W, 77 RPI
Chances of NIT bid: 7.72% (7 day change: +4.32%)
Postseason chances: 7.72% (7 day change: +4.32%)
The Dragons have more than doubled their NIT chances with a couple of nice home wins this week against VCU (Expected RPI 85) and George Mason (Expected RPI 107). Those wins could end up being doubly important, as the Dragons currently project to finish tied with those two teams and will now own the tiebreaker against both of them:
Georgia St. 14-4 Drexel 13-5 George Mason 13-5 VCU 13-5
We can probably raise the Dragons’ chances of running the table in the CAA tournament up to about 18% given where they now project to finish.
Target Wins/RPI for NCAA bid: –
Chances of NCAA bid: 0.00%
Target Wins/RPI for NIT bid: 21 W, 80 RPI
Chances of NIT bid: 0.03% (7 day change: -0.17%)
Postseason chances: 0.03% (7 day change: -0.17%)
This will probably be the last week that Penn will have a non-zero chance of cracking the NIT field. No matter — Penn’s real season starts tonight as they kick off Ivy League play at Columbia (Expected RPI 144, 38% chance of victory), and continue tomorrow with a trip to Cornell (Expected RPI 204, 43% chance of victory). The Quakers would be well-served to get out to a 2-0 start, but that won’t be easy on the road. For posterity, here is how the top of the Ivy standings project to shake out as of this date:
Harvard 12-2 Princeton 9-5 Yale 8-6 Penn 7-7 Columbia 7-7 Cornell 7-7
We can safely say the Quakers’ chances of nabbing the Ivy’s automatic bid remain at slightly less than 1.46%…
-Mike Scullin is the bracket expert for Philahoops. Scullin is a 2008 Saint Joseph’s graduate, where he majored in economics. In addition to his career in the Federal Government, he has operated the bracket prediction website NIT-ology since 2005.
Latest posts by Mike Scullin (see all)
- Philahoops Bracket Expert: It’s all about NCAA seeding now for Temple - February 25, 2012
- Philahoops Bracket Expert: Temple has punched ticket to Big Dance - February 16, 2012
- Philahoops Bracket Expert: Drexel has 13 percent chance of NCAA at-large bid - February 3, 2012